The power of prevention and valorisation for reducing surplus and waste of bakery products – Publication

4 February 2025 By

A group of researchers of the LOWINFOOD project have recently published an article in the journal Sustainable Production and Consumption, where they quantify the surplus and waste of baked goods in Sweden, and map and assess different pathways for managing unsold bread. They demonstrate that prevention and valorisation strategies, such as data sharing and price reductions, have the greatest potential for reducing waste and environmental impact. Prevention could result in up to ten times lower climate impact per kilogram of bread. 

Nearly 180,000 tons of baked goods are wasted annually in Sweden. Roughly 51 % is generated at the supplier-retailer interface, particularly considering bread sold under take-back agreements where 14 % of production becomes surplus. Only 2 % of this surplus is recirculated to the food system, while the majority is used in energy production. 

The take-back agreements implemented in the bread supply chain in Sweden exhibit a degree of circularity, as they allow the valorisation of unsold products. However, this model has also been identified as a risk factor in generating high volumes of bread waste, entailing a considerable economic loss for producers, retailers and consumers, but also has a devastating environmental impact through, e.g. increased global warming, biodiversity loss and depletion of natural resources. Many retailers face a trade-off between providing high availability of products and the environmental, social and financial burdens related to unsold products. 

Through the stakeholder dialogues (two rounds of dialogues were conducted in Sweden as part of the implementation of this innovation), along with literature, previous research, public company reports, and data shared via correspondence with industry actors and charity organizations, the volumes of surplus arising at the supplier-retailer interface were quantified by the LOWINFOOD researchers. Alongside this, the amount of surplus bread sold under the take-back agreement following different pathways was mapped. 

The results show that just under 180,000  tonnes of baked goods, equivalent to roughly 7.7 billion EUR, are lost or wasted annually. The majority of savoury bread consumed in Sweden was found to be sold and distributed under take-back agreements, where 14 % of production (27,000 t) becomes surplus already at the supplier-retailer interface each year. The results further show that the loss rate for sweet products is overall higher compared to savoury products, with even lower loss rates for hardened products.

The power of prevention and valorisation was demonstrated through scenario analyses, where innovations for waste reduction and alternative surplus pathways at the retail-bakery interface were simulated. The largest reduction potential was obtained for preventative actions, either through sharing of data or price reductions. Scenarios adopting both prevention and high-value valorisation resulted in up to ten times lower climate impact per kg of bread.

The outcome of this study can be directly used to support industry actors who want to implement changes that reduce waste or promote high-value valorisation pathways. The results can also provide guidance in developing policy recommendations that economically favour prevention and valorisation toward human consumption, and provide a valuable basis for future research on resource-efficient food systems.